Did Trump really strike Gulf deals worth $2tn?

Flying home from his Gulf trip last week, President Donald Trump told reporters “that was a great four days, historic four days”.

Visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), he added in this trademark swagger that “the jobs and money coming into our countries, there has never been anything like it”.

Trump claimed that he was able to secure deals totalling more than $2tn (£1.5tn) for the US, but do the numbers add up?

The trip itself was an extravaganza, with the three Gulf states pulling out all the stops.

Escorts of fighter jets, extravagant welcoming ceremonies, a thundering 21-gun salute, a fleet of Tesla Cybertrucks, royal camels, Arabian horses, and sword dancers were all part of the pageantry.

The UAE also awarded Mr Trump the country’s highest civilian honour, the Order of Zayed.

The visit’s optics were striking; the region’s richest petrostates flaunted their opulence, revealing just how much of that fortune they were ready to deploy to strengthen ties with the US while advancing their own economic goals.

Before embarking on the trip, President Trump, who touts himself as a “dealmaker in chief” was clear that the main objective of the trip was to land investments worth billions of dollars. On the face of it, he succeeded.

In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reiterated a pledge to invest $600bn in US-Saudi partnerships. There were a plethora of deals announced as part of this, encompassing arms, artificial intelligence (AI), healthcare, infrastructure projects and science collaborations, and various security ties and initiatives.

The $142bn defence deal grabbed a lot of the attention as it was described by the White House as the largest arms deal ever.

However, there remains some doubt as to whether those investment figures are realistic.

During his first term in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump had announced that Saudi Arabia had agreed to $450bn in deals with the US.

But actual trade and investment flows amounted to less than $300bn between 2017 to 2020, according to data compiled by the Arab Gulf States Institute.

The report was authored by Tim Callen, the former International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission chief to Saudi Arabia, and now a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.

“The proof with all of these [new] deals will be in the pudding,” says Mr Callen.

The BBC contacted the White House for comment.